Wrapping up June

So this year is half over already. I thought I would examine some of the things I've said so far this year, about my personal goals and some of the predictions I made (where I went wrong, where I was totally right, etc.).

These were my goals:
1. I intend to break myself of the monkey that's on my back. I'm 21 hours into a new year, and I intend to go all 8784 free of this thing that has been cursing me for the last 6 years.

This has been kind of up and down throughout the year. At some points the monkey really has not been a problem, and at others (including at the end of March and in the last few weeks), the monkey has been really bad. I look to be on an upswing of anti-monkeyness starting tomorrow.

2. I intend to maintain straight A's this year, without exception. I think there are several classes where this will be quite easy: Ancient Rome, Critical Thinking, French II, Biostatistics, and others where this will be extremely challenging: THESES.

So far, I have kept this goal faithfully. 23 hours in the spring and all A's. French and biochem research promise to be A's also. We'll see what fall brings...

3. I intend to graduate this fall, and this look really good for a fall graduation.

I will graduate in fall, no problem.

4. I intend on December 21 to have over 3000 dollars in my savings account, if possible. I'll have a better idea of this when summer starts. Right now, I have 500 dollars, but I'm hoping that I can work a lot this summer, and save up everything I make this year that doesn't go towards school.

This is tricky. I'm near 1000 now (far off, I know), and there are questions about my tuition. My guess is that I'll probably be lucky to break $2000 by the time I graduate, but I do have a lot of opportunity to work this year. I think a better goal to have this year to come (Spring 09, Summer 09 included) is to be able to have around $10,000 saved by the time I leave for grad school.


These are some of my smaller ones:1. Get good scores on the GRE. I have no doubt that I can do well in the math and writing sections, but verbal reasoning is kind of eh. I've taken a couple of practice tests and gotten ridicuously skewed numbers: 480 in verbal (which sucks) and 720 in math, (which is amazing).

I did ok on my GRE, getting a 770 in math, a 590 in verbal, and a 5.5 in writing. I may take it again to see if I can score higher...?

2. Read all of the books that I've got that I haven't yet read, which is a ton. I'm resolved not to buy another new-non school-book until all the ones I have now are read. I think it's a ridiculous number that will take basically all year, but still.

This was a mixed bag. I have bought several books (Eleanor of Aquitaine, two Dostoevsky books, and a history book on mediaeval machinery), but I have read more than I have bought (like 15), and I have like 20 more to read by the end of the year, hopefully.

3. I plan on discarding a lot of my things this summer, as I do every summer, books that I've read that I have no intention of ever reading or using again, old clothes that I don't wear, junk papers sitting around, etc.

I have gotten rid of a LOT (examine earlier blog entries), but I think I still have a lot more to get rid of, especially along the lines of clothes and junk I just don't need anymore.


4. Finish all of my assignments at least a week early, if possible. I successfully did it last year in the spring, but not so much in the fall. This semester I hope will be slightly different.

HA HA HAHHA HA HA HA! I basically did all of my assignments and my studying the night before it was due. I think the only things I did a LOT of work on were my thesis, my advanced immunology stuff, and my one paper I had to write this semester in Critical Thinking.

5. Finish all the cross-stitches I have right now (5 I think) before I buy any more. No buying cross stitches until the ones I have are done!I'm sure I will think of more laterBy the way, I'm going to go cross stitch and movie watch now.

HA HA HAHAHAHAHAHA. I've finished like 2. And my mom bought me 4 more. I'm screwed there. I would be better off with the books.


These were some of the predictions that I made about the world (either here or on my other blogs):

1. That the situation in Iraq would markedly improve in order to improve a Republican's chances of election.

This is obviously happening. For the first time ever, the US, allied forces, (and I think civilians) have LOWER death and injury rates in Iraq rather than in Afghanistan. Reports are increasing of Iraqis returning to their daily lives with relative ease (yahoo article today on Basra). McCain is clearly benefiting, probably more than Bush ever will (thanks to the economy), as Iraq is one of the issues where people think he is the better man for the job.

2. That the situation in Afghanistan would suffer because of it.

Yep.

3. That Hillary would be the Democratic nominee, McCain the Republican one.

Not quite. I did make these predictions after New Hampshire (so my McCain pick is not so surprising). Clinton probably should have won. Had she campaigned in Washington, Nebraska, and Wisconsin more fervently, she would be the Democratic nominee. But people got the impression that Hillary only cared about the big states--California, New York, Massachusetts, Florida, Pennsylvania. That strategy works for Republicans, but not Democrats, thanks to delegate allocation rules. I think Obama came across as more willing to talk to people in the middle of the country, which allowed him to rack up an 11 state streak (including Louisiana, Virginia, Wisconsin, Washington, and Maryland).

4. That my back might get broken by oil prices with barrels near $130 by the 4th of July.

My back isn't broken, but I was not too far off on oil. I, however, made this prediction in April, so maybe it doesn't count.

5. That the European Union would accept Croatia's application for admission.

It is still possible that Croatia's application will be accepted, as it has only four issues left to resolve (Turkey, a candidate for like 7 years now, still has 15 issues to resolve, I think). However, the EU as a whole has a bigger issue. The current treaty limits the number of states to 27. Guess how many there are now? 27. With Ireland and now Poland's rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon, Croatia may be left to suffer.

6. That significant progress in the cure for cancer will be published sometime this year.

The information on Vitamin D I think is good for common people, but we've sort of known this in science land for years.

7. That HIV rates will INCREASE in the US for the first time in years. AIDS incidence though would drop thanks to continued use of anti-retroviral drugs.

HIV rates have increased in homosexual males (especially young males who have not had to live through a generation of AIDS like the gay men who are now in their 30s-50s) engaging in sex, and decreased slightly in all other groups, yielding a small drop in HIV infection. AIDS cases and AIDS related deaths have continued to drop in the US, thanks to improving medications. Reports released this year show us actually quite progressive in drug development, thanks to the intention of studying the virus itself, not just what can kill it. Interestingly, people descended from survivors of pneumatic plague in the 14 and 1500s have a STRONG immunity to HIV, thanks to a decrease in CKCR-5 (I know it has two c's, I can't remember the name off the top of my head) [aka, cytokine cell receptor-5; I think].

8. That bird flu would be another case of SARS.

yep. How much do you hear about bird flu now? Not really.

9. That the flu vaccine this year would not work.

This I know from personal experience.

10. That all major syndicated television shows would tank thanks to the writing strike, with people turning more to movies and other media forms.

Obviously not all have tanked. However, television viewership I think was down significantly when TV returned in the late spring...it may be a good sign, because I tend to think we're too dependent on things like TV's, Internet, etc.

11. That Kosovo will declare independence and be supported by the vast majority of Western nations and Muslim nations by July 1.

Part right here. I made this prediction like the day before Kosovo declared (when everyone already knew it was going to). It has garnered support from the vast majority of western states, as I predicted (I think it's like 85% of NATO states and 80% of EU states), but Muslim states have been pretty reluctant to actually formally recognize, and Turkey and Bangladesh have been the only two who have really advocated Kosovo's independence.


These are my top ten predictions for the rest of the year:

1. That my current heart woes are the result of a physical, rather than emotional condition. My current suspect is hyperthyroidism.

2. Kosovo will garner maybe 40 more recognitions, and has no reasonable prospect for entry into the UN until Serbia gives up its claim on the land in 2010 in order to submit an application to the EU.

3. The Irish rejection of the EU Treaty of Lisbon will probably set back their unity efforts by 3-5 years. In response, EU states will try to pressure and isolate Ireland within the union. Croatia's application will be deferred on final acceptance until the treaty is resolved. Montenegro will submit its application in November of 2008.

4. The situation in Iraq will remain stable for maybe 4 months, until the elections really heat up and the weather cools down. Insurgents eager to get the US out of Iraq will hammer soldiers (rather than civilians, whom we don't care about) in suicide bombings and roadside explosives in the desperate attempt to drive Americans to vote for Obama and get US troops out by June 2009.

5. The economy will actually improve, starting in late August or early September, as demand for gasoline continues to fall, a decrease in regulation, and the increase in interest rates weakens the price of oil and strengthens the dollar against Euro and the Yen. Oil will probably fall to $100 by November, but unemployment will remain high and natural gas will spike due to an unnaturally cold winter in the Midwest and Northeast.

6. November elections will be mired in controversy not on the presidential scale (which Obama will win by a margin of 273-265 in the electoral college) unless one man wins the popular vote and loses the electoral vote (I give that 15% chance). Controversy will exist in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico senate races.

7. Tampa Bay Rays continue to make strides, winning the AL wild card, but losing to LA Angels, who eventually beat the Cubs in the world series.

8. The United States comes in third in FIFA 2010 qualifying, and is horrendously embarrassed at the olympics, with exception to Katie Hoff, Michael Phelps, and Tyson Gay who will each gain at least four medals. The rest of the olympic team is washed away by China, Australia, or a surprisingly capable Russia.

9. President Bush will not initiate war with Iran. Fears will be alleviated when the EU steps in and administers its own restrictive sanctions in Iran and Iraq's growing security shows that Iranian oil is totally unnecessary.

10. Hugo Chavez will say at least one stupid thing in the rest of this year.

11. Fidel Castro will quietly disappear for a period of five months at the end of the year before his death is announced in April or May 2009.